Canada International Merchandise Trade in Coal: Imports and Exports
22 March 2025 - Written by ML
Overview
This report summarizes Canada’s international merchandise trade in Coal (NAPCS category 144) from Q1 1988 through Q3 2024 (latest data point), based on Statistics Canada data(Statistics Canada Table 12-10-0164-01, 2025). It presents the changing shape of Canada’s coal exports and imports over time. The report has been generated with support from Grok, Deep Seek and ChatGpt models. In particular supportive input was used in coding to extract the data, manipulate the data, and, provide suggestions and inferences on what the data shows.
Key Insights
We begin with an overview of export and import for Coal over time, depicted in the line chart below.
Figure 1: Historical trade in coal (Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted)
Overview
The chart titled “Canada’s Coal Imports and Exports Over Time (Latest: Q3 2024)” visualizes the seasonally adjusted values of Canada’s coal imports and exports in millions of dollars from Q1 1988 to Q3 2024. The x-axis spans from 1988 to 2024. The y-axis shows values from 0 to 4,000 million dollars. The red line represents exports, and the teal line represents imports.
Overall Trend (1988–2024):
Exports
From 1988 to around 2005, coal exports were relatively low, fluctuating between 500 and 1,000 million dollars per quarter. Between 2005 and 2012, exports showed moderate growth, reaching around 1,500–2,000 million dollars with some fluctuations. Exports then dropped to trough out at 2016 and then rebounded with a significant increase. Exports peaked at approximately 4,000 million dollars in 2022. Following this peak, exports declined sharply, dropping by more than half to below 1,000 million dollars by Q3 2024.
Imports
Coal imports remained consistently low and stable throughout the entire period, generally ranging between 200 and 400 million dollars per quarter. There are no significant peaks or troughs, and by Q3 2024, imports are around 300 million dollars.
Export Peak (Q1–Q2 2022)
The most prominent feature is the sharp peak in exports in Q1 2022, where the value reached approximately 4,000 million dollars. This peak likely reflects a surge in global coal demand, possibly driven by a post-COVID economic recovery, energy supply disruptions (e.g., the Russia-Ukraine conflict starting in February 2022), and high coal prices. European countries, in particular, increased coal usage in 2022 as a temporary measure to replace Russian natural gas, which may have boosted demand for Canadian coal.
Long-Term Implications
The rapid decline in exports after 2022 underscores the challenges facing Canada’s coal industry in a de-carbonizing world. While the 2022 peak provided a temporary boost, the subsequent drop suggests that coal’s role in the global energy mix is diminishing. This could have economic implications for coal-producing regions in Canada, such as British Columbia and Alberta, where communities and jobs depend on the industry.
Environmental and Policy Context
The chart reflects the broader global shift away from coal as countries pursue climate goals (e.g., under the Paris Agreement). Canada’s commitment to phasing out coal-fired power by 2030 and reducing greenhouse gas emissions may further limit the coal industry’s growth, both domestically and in export markets. The 2022 peak appears to be an anomaly driven by geopolitical events, rather than a sustainable trend.
Price comparison
Figure 2: Trend in Coal exports and imports with Australian Coal Prices (Quarterly, indexed 1990-01-01 = 100)
To visualize the potential impact of coal prices to the analysis we added Australian Coal price data(Global Price of Coal, Australia (PCOALAUUSDM), 2025). That series was drawn in from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis and placed onto a common time basis and then indexed to a common base (Q1 1990 = 100). The chart visualizes the relationships over time.
A correlation matrix of the indexed levels (Exports_indexed, Imports_indexed, price_indexed) was computed and a strong correlation was found between the value of exports and prices. A weaker relationship was seen between exports and import value indexes and between imports and prices. We then examined closer the period around 2022 to observe how the levels moved together. The indexed levels revealed both a sharp rise in Exports_indexed and price_indexed during the 2022 peak period that highlights their alignment over time.
| Exports_indexed | Imports_indexed | price_indexed | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports_indexed | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.88 |
| Imports_indexed | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.49 |
| price_indexed | 0.88 | 0.49 | 1.00 |
That correlation indicates that movements in Australian coal prices are closely associated with movements in Canada’s coal exports. When prices rise, exports tend to rise significantly, and when prices fall, exports tend to fall. This aligns with economic intuition: that higher coal prices incentivize producers to export more to capitalize on better margins, while lower prices may reduce export incentives due to lower profitability. Between exports and imports there was a moderate correlation which indicates some positive relationship but less clear drivers that could explain that. And perhaps may suggest that because Canada is largely self-sufficient in coal its imports are less sensitive to the same market dynamics that drive exports.
| date | Exports_indexed | Imports_indexed | price_indexed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-01-01 | 261 | 153 | 239 |
| 2021-04-01 | 310 | 108 | 257 |
| 2021-07-01 | 520 | 139 | 403 |
| 2021-10-01 | 749 | 113 | 634 |
| 2022-01-01 | 853 | 156 | 610 |
| 2022-04-01 | 1123 | 208 | 881 |
| 2022-07-01 | 890 | 247 | 1141 |
| 2022-10-01 | 710 | 269 | 1123 |
| 2023-01-01 | 816 | 260 | 1065 |
Changes
While the ‘levels’ based approach above provides a visual sense of long-term trends and the relationship between values and prices more instructive may be an examination of the changes in prices and changes in export and import values. And to gain deeper understanding of these changes we next generate the change in index levels and examine whether there is a correlation between the variables. At the heart of the research is seeking an answer to: “Does a change in coal prices lead to a change in exports or imports?” And whether a price increase (Δprice > 0) incentivizes producers to export more (ΔExports > 0), while a price decrease might reduce exports.
| Exports_change | Imports_change | price_change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports_change | 1.00 | 0.12 | 0.44 |
| Imports_change | 0.12 | 1.00 | 0.06 |
| price_change | 0.44 | 0.06 | 1.00 |
Interpretation:
Exports and Prices (0.44): There is a moderate positive correlation (0.44) between Exports_change and price_change. This suggests that when coal prices increase by a percentage in a given quarter, exports tend to increase by a percentage as well, though the relationship is not extremely strong. The moderate correlation suggests that other factors (e.g., supply constraints, demand variability) may also influence export changes.
Imports and Prices (0.07): The correlation between Imports_change and price_change is very weak (0.07), essentially negligible. This indicates that quarterly changes in coal prices have little to no immediate impact on changes in imports. This is consistent with Canada’s role as a net exporter of coal.
Exports and Imports (0.12): The correlation between Exports_change and Imports_change is also weak (0.12). This suggests that quarterly changes in exports and imports are largely independent of each other. While there might be some shared influences (e.g., global economic activity affecting both), the weak correlation reinforces that exports are more responsive to global market dynamics (like price changes), while imports are driven by domestic needs and remain stable.
Comparison with Levels Analysis:
In the previous levels analysis (using indexed values), the correlation between Exports_indexed and price_indexed was much higher (0.88), and between Imports_indexed and price_indexed was 0.49. The lower correlations in the changes analysis (0.44 and 0.07, respectively) indicate that the strong relationships in the levels data were partly due to shared long-term trends (e.g., both exports and prices trending upward over time). By focusing on percentage changes, we’ve removed these trends, revealing the true short-term relationship between the series, which is more moderate for exports and prices and negligible for imports and prices.
Percentage Changes Around the 2022 Peak
The peak_period_changes data frame shows the quarterly percentage changes in exports, imports, and prices from Q1 2021 to Q1 2023, capturing the period around the 2022 peak in coal prices:
| date | Exports_change | Imports_change | price_change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-01-01 | 10 | 9 | 57 |
| 2021-04-01 | 19 | -30 | 8 |
| 2021-07-01 | 68 | 29 | 57 |
| 2021-10-01 | 44 | -19 | 57 |
| 2022-01-01 | 14 | 38 | -4 |
| 2022-04-01 | 32 | 34 | 44 |
| 2022-07-01 | -21 | 18 | 30 |
| 2022-10-01 | -20 | 9 | -2 |
| 2023-01-01 | 15 | -3 | -5 |
Price changes
Prices show significant volatility, with large increases in Q1 2021 (56.7%), Q3 2021 (56.6%), and Q4 2021 (57.1%), reflecting the global coal price spike driven by the post-covid demand as industrial activity and energy demand rose. That rebound may have been especially pronounced in india and China. A host of factors in China may also have contributed that Grok attributes to: domestic supply shortages in 2021 due to safety inspections; flooding in coal-producing regions; and, a ban on Australian coal imports (stemming from diplomatic tensions). This led to increased demand for coal from other exporters, including Canada, driving up global prices. These factors may have been behind the uplift in 2021 and then were exarcerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict (starting February 2022) that led to increased demand from Europe to replace Russian natural gas. There was a substantial price rise in Q2 2022 (44.4%) and further gains in Q3 2022 (with a 29.5% increase). After which prices declined slightly in Q4 2022 (-1.55%) and Q1 2023 (-5.24%), indicating the beginning of a price correction as supply chains stabilized.
Export Changes
Exports exhibited volatility, with significant increases in Q3 2021 (67.8%), Q4 2021 (44.1%), and Q2 2022 (31.6%), aligning with the large price increases in those quarters. This supports the moderate correlation (0.44) between Exports_change and price_change, as export growth tends to follow price growth. The largest export increase occurs in Q3 2021 (67.8%), shortly after a 56.6% price increase, suggesting a strong but slightly lagged response to price changes. Exports continue to grow in Q4 2021 (44.1%) and Q2 2022 (31.6%), but decline sharply in Q3 2022 (-20.7%) and Q4 2022 (-20.3%), even as prices remain high in Q3 2022 (29.5%). This indicates potential supply constraints or market saturation, where exports couldn’t keep pace with continued price increases. By Q1 2023, exports rebound slightly (14.9%) despite a price decline (-5.24%), possibly due to lagged effects or adjustments in export contracts.
For future analysis it may be worth exploring whether there is a lagged response of any significance in the value of exports following a price surge. By inspection it suggests a two quarter lag perhaps reflecting production, shipping, or contractual adjustments.
Import Changes
Imports show no clear pattern with price changes, consistent with the weak correlation (0.07).
Overall Relationship Between Changes
The moderate correlation (0.44) and the alignment during the 2022 peak period (e.g., large price increases in Q3–Q4 2021 followed by large export increases) confirm that price changes influence export changes, but the relationship is not immediate or perfectly synchronized. The decline in exports in Q3 2022 (-20.7%) despite a price increase (29.5%) suggests that factors like production capacity, shipping constraints, or market saturation may limit export growth even when prices rise.
Conclusion
The changes approach reveals a moderate relationship between price changes and export changes (correlation: 0.44), with export growth often following price increases, as seen during the 2022 peak period. However, the relationship is not immediate, and export declines in Q3–Q4 2022 despite high prices suggest supply constraints or market saturation. Imports show no significant relationship with price changes (correlation: 0.07), remaining stable and driven by domestic factors. The weak correlation between export and import changes (0.12) highlights their independent dynamics. This analysis provides a clearer picture of short-term responses to price shocks compared to the levels approach, confirming that Canada’s coal exports are sensitive to global price movements, while imports are insulated due to domestic production.
Report method
This report examines Canada’s monthly international merchandise import and export trade in Coal. Source for the indices is from Statistics Canada (Table 12-10-0164-01).
The two specific Vector IDs are: 1566911963; 1566912569 that relate to import value and export value. These vectors represent Coal with the North American Product Classification System (NAPCS) code of 144. The data series use balance of payments data and are seasonally adjusted.
The statistics Canada data was extracted by downloading the full csv table from the Statistics Canada website.
For the price measure we used the Federal Reserve bank of St Louis data that provides a time series for Australian coal prices in USD per metric ton (not seasonally adjusted). The series is: PCOALAUUSDM and is monthly with the first data point January 1990. For the purpose of simplicity we joined the price series to the Canadian trade series on the common date. The result is that we are using quarter end prices that align with the Canadian trade values. But that approach obscures the change in price that takes place during the quarter and we have not reflected that. After the series were on a common time basis we then indexed all series from the start point of 1990-01-01 and generated the charts and tables from that point.