Hong Kong listed China Car Companies Stock Analysis

01 January 2026 - Written by ML with Cursor Ai support

Introduction

This report analyzes share prices for 9 Hong Kong-listed Chinese car companies over the past 10 years. The analysis includes:

  • Historical price data retrieval
  • Return calculations
  • Indexed price series (normalized to common start date)
  • Visualizations (combined and faceted charts)
  • Value at Risk (VaR) calculations for each car company
  • Performance comparison with the Hang Seng Index

Car Company Ticker Reference

Ticker Symbols and Company Names
Ticker Company Name
1211.HK BYD Company Limited
0175.HK Geely Automobile Holdings Limited
2333.HK Great Wall Motor Company Limited
9973.HK Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. 
9868.HK XPeng Inc. 
2015.HK Li Auto Inc. 
9863.HK Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co., Ltd. 
1114.HK Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited
0489.HK Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited

Data Fetching

## Fetching data for 9 car companies...
## Date range: 2016-01-01 to 2026-01-01
## Fetching 1211.HK ... OK
## Fetching 0175.HK ... OK
## Fetching 2333.HK ... OK
## Fetching 9973.HK ... OK
## Fetching 9868.HK ... OK
## Fetching 2015.HK ... OK
## Fetching 9863.HK ... OK
## Fetching 1114.HK ... OK
## Fetching 0489.HK ... OK
## 
## Successfully fetched data for 9 out of 9 tickers.
## Total observations: 15356
## Date range: 2016-01-04 to 2025-12-31

Data Summary:

Data Summary by Car Company
Ticker Company Name Start Date End Date Obs First Price Last Price
0175.HK Geely Automobile Holdings Limited 2016-01-04 2025-12-31 2462 3.38 17.94
0489.HK Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited 2016-01-04 2025-12-31 2462 6.12 8.80
1114.HK Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited 2016-01-04 2025-12-31 2462 1.03 4.08
1211.HK BYD Company Limited 2016-01-04 2025-12-31 2462 13.02 95.10
2015.HK Li Auto Inc.  2021-08-12 2025-12-31 1078 117.00 64.65
2333.HK Great Wall Motor Company Limited 2016-01-04 2025-12-31 2462 5.94 15.28
9863.HK Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co., Ltd.  2022-09-29 2025-12-31 799 31.90 48.74
9868.HK XPeng Inc.  2021-07-07 2025-12-31 1104 165.00 79.05
9973.HK Chery Automobile Co., Ltd.  2025-09-25 2025-12-31 65 31.92 30.86

Calculate Returns

## Calculated returns for 9 car companies.
## Total return observations: 15347

Returns Summary:

Daily Returns Summary Statistics (%)
Ticker Company Name Mean Std Dev Min Max
0175.HK Geely Automobile Holdings Limited 0.068 3.036 -23.529 17.902
0489.HK Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited 0.015 2.738 -18.540 43.246
1114.HK Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited 0.056 3.516 -99.462 23.052
1211.HK BYD Company Limited 0.081 2.949 -17.319 16.378
2015.HK Li Auto Inc.  -0.055 4.195 -41.650 29.704
2333.HK Great Wall Motor Company Limited 0.038 3.215 -17.727 19.364
9863.HK Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co., Ltd.  0.053 4.149 -28.259 14.064
9868.HK XPeng Inc.  -0.067 4.941 -36.033 29.181
9973.HK Chery Automobile Co., Ltd.  -0.053 1.685 -4.640 4.554

Index to Common Start Date

## Common start date: 2025-09-25
## Indexed prices to common start date.
## Total indexed observations: 585
## Number of car companies: 9

Indexed Prices Preview:

Indexed Prices (First 5 observations per car company)
Ticker Date Price Index
0175.HK 2025-09-25 18.45 100.00
0175.HK 2025-09-26 18.23 98.81
0175.HK 2025-09-29 18.63 100.98
0175.HK 2025-09-30 19.55 105.96
0175.HK 2025-10-02 19.74 106.99
0489.HK 2025-09-25 8.72 100.00
0489.HK 2025-09-26 8.94 102.52
0489.HK 2025-09-29 8.88 101.83
0489.HK 2025-09-30 9.00 103.21
0489.HK 2025-10-02 9.13 104.70
1114.HK 2025-09-25 3.87 100.00
1114.HK 2025-09-26 3.98 102.84
1114.HK 2025-09-29 4.09 105.68
1114.HK 2025-09-30 4.12 106.46
1114.HK 2025-10-02 4.19 108.27
1211.HK 2025-09-25 108.20 100.00
1211.HK 2025-09-26 106.50 98.43
1211.HK 2025-09-29 108.60 100.37
1211.HK 2025-09-30 110.20 101.85
1211.HK 2025-10-02 113.90 105.27
2015.HK 2025-09-25 102.00 100.00
2015.HK 2025-09-26 100.10 98.14
2015.HK 2025-09-29 98.55 96.62
2015.HK 2025-09-30 101.40 99.41
2015.HK 2025-10-02 102.00 100.00
2333.HK 2025-09-25 16.44 100.00
2333.HK 2025-09-26 16.48 100.24
2333.HK 2025-09-29 16.72 101.70
2333.HK 2025-09-30 16.80 102.19
2333.HK 2025-10-02 17.00 103.41
9863.HK 2025-09-25 66.30 100.00
9863.HK 2025-09-26 65.80 99.25
9863.HK 2025-09-29 65.70 99.10
9863.HK 2025-09-30 66.35 100.08
9863.HK 2025-10-02 69.00 104.07
9868.HK 2025-09-25 86.45 100.00
9868.HK 2025-09-26 90.80 105.03
9868.HK 2025-09-29 89.90 103.99
9868.HK 2025-09-30 93.15 107.75
9868.HK 2025-10-02 95.05 109.95
9973.HK 2025-09-25 31.92 100.00
9973.HK 2025-09-26 32.80 102.76
9973.HK 2025-09-29 32.02 100.31
9973.HK 2025-09-30 31.88 99.87
9973.HK 2025-10-02 32.12 100.63

Performance Analysis

Fetch Hang Seng Index Data

## Fetching Hang Seng Index data from 2024-12-01 to 2026-01-01 ...
## ✓ Successfully fetched Hang Seng Index data
## Date range: 2024-12-02 to 2025-12-31 
## Total observations: 266 
## ✓ YTD start date (2025-01-01) data available
##   Actual date used: 2024-12-31 
##   Price on that date: 20059.95

Calculate Performance Metrics

## Reference dates:
##   Latest (most recent trading day): 2025-12-31
##   1 month ago: 2025-12-01
##   3 months ago: 2025-10-02
##   YTD start: 2025-01-01
## Hang Seng Index prices (using nearest available trading day):
##   Latest: 25630.54 on 2025-12-31 (target: 2025-12-31 )
##   1M: 26033.26 on 2025-12-01 (target: 2025-12-01 )
##   3M: 27287.12 on 2025-10-02 (target: 2025-10-02 )
##   YTD: 20059.95 on 2024-12-31 (target: 2025-01-01 )
## Sample stock: 1211.HK 
##   Latest price: 95.1 on 2025-12-31 
##   1M price: 97.95 on or before 2025-12-01 
##   3M price: 113.9 on or before 2025-10-02 
##   YTD price: 87.8951 on or before 2025-01-01 
##   Available date range: 2016-01-04 to 2025-12-31
## Performance data calculated for 10 stocks plus Hang Seng Index

Absolute Performance Table

Absolute Performance: Stock Prices and Percentage Changes
Ticker Company Name Latest Price 1 Month Ago 3 Months Ago YTD Start 1M Change (%) 3M Change (%) YTD Change (%)
0489.HK Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited 8.80 9.15 9.13 3.73 -3.83 -3.61 135.92
1114.HK Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited 4.08 3.88 4.19 2.24 5.15 -2.63 82.18
9868.HK XPeng Inc.  79.05 83.35 95.05 46.85 -5.16 -16.83 68.73
9863.HK Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co., Ltd.  48.74 53.25 69.00 32.35 -8.47 -29.36 50.66
^HSI Hang Seng Index 25630.54 26033.26 27287.12 20059.95 -1.55 -6.07 27.77
0175.HK Geely Automobile Holdings Limited 17.94 17.06 19.74 14.56 5.16 -9.12 23.21
2333.HK Great Wall Motor Company Limited 15.28 14.80 17.00 13.11 3.24 -10.12 16.57
1211.HK BYD Company Limited 95.10 97.95 113.90 87.90 -2.91 -16.51 8.20
2015.HK Li Auto Inc.  64.65 70.30 102.00 94.40 -8.04 -36.62 -31.51
9973.HK Chery Automobile Co., Ltd.  30.86 31.86 32.12 NA -3.14 -3.92 NA

Relative Performance Table

Relative Performance: Stock Returns vs Hang Seng Index
Ticker Company Name 1M vs HSI (%) 3M vs HSI (%) YTD vs HSI (%)
0489.HK Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited -2.28 2.46 108.16
1114.HK Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited 6.70 3.45 54.41
9868.HK XPeng Inc.  -3.61 -10.76 40.96
9863.HK Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co., Ltd.  -6.92 -23.29 22.89
0175.HK Geely Automobile Holdings Limited 6.71 -3.05 -4.56
2333.HK Great Wall Motor Company Limited 4.79 -4.05 -11.20
1211.HK BYD Company Limited -1.36 -10.43 -19.57
2015.HK Li Auto Inc.  -6.49 -30.55 -59.28
9973.HK Chery Automobile Co., Ltd.  -1.59 2.15 NA

Interpretation: - Absolute Performance: Shows the actual price changes for each stock and the Hang Seng Index - Relative Performance: Shows how each stock performed relative to the Hang Seng Index - Positive values indicate the stock outperformed the index - Negative values indicate the stock underperformed the index

Visualization: All Car Companies on One Chart

Visualization: Faceted Charts

Value at Risk (VaR) Calculation

Following the methodology from the VaR teaching guide, we calculate 1-year historical VaR at 95% confidence level for each car company.

VaR Calculation Function

Calculate VaR for All Car Companies

## Calculating VaR for all car companies...
## Processing 1211.HK ... VaR = 36.81 %
## Processing 0175.HK ... VaR = 65.74 %
## Processing 2333.HK ... VaR = 91.56 %
## Processing 9973.HK ... FAILED
## Processing 9868.HK ... VaR = 154.46 %
## Processing 2015.HK ... VaR = 66.37 %
## Processing 9863.HK ... VaR = 61.38 %
## Processing 1114.HK ... VaR = 90.56 %
## Processing 0489.HK ... VaR = 45.65 %
## 
## VaR calculation complete for 8 car companies.

VaR Results Table

Value at Risk (VaR) Results - 95 % Confidence Level
Ticker Company Name VaR (%) CI Lower (%) CI Upper (%) Obs Start Date End Date
9868.HK XPeng Inc.  154.46 149.17 160.46 852 2021-07-07 2025-12-31
2333.HK Great Wall Motor Company Limited 91.56 83.39 98.83 2210 2016-01-04 2025-12-31
1114.HK Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited 90.56 78.13 95.89 2210 2016-01-04 2025-12-31
2015.HK Li Auto Inc.  66.37 62.36 68.36 826 2021-08-12 2025-12-31
0175.HK Geely Automobile Holdings Limited 65.74 64.10 68.01 2210 2016-01-04 2025-12-31
9863.HK Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co., Ltd.  61.38 58.45 63.60 547 2022-09-29 2025-12-31
0489.HK Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited 45.65 44.59 46.65 2210 2016-01-04 2025-12-31
1211.HK BYD Company Limited 36.81 35.07 39.08 2210 2016-01-04 2025-12-31

VaR Visualization

Detailed VaR Analysis Charts

For each car company, we provide comprehensive four-panel charts showing price, rolling annual returns, daily returns, and return distribution.

Analysis Excluding Cherry (9973.HK)

Since Chery Automobile (9973.HK) listed in September 2025, its inclusion limits the common start date for analysis. This section presents the analysis excluding Cherry to provide a longer historical comparison period for the remaining car companies.

Data Preparation (Excluding Cherry)

## Analysis excluding Cherry (9973.HK)
## Remaining car companies: 8
## Common start date (excluding Cherry): 2022-09-29
## Original common start date (including Cherry): 2025-09-25
## Additional days of history: 1092 days
## Indexed prices excluding Cherry.
## Total indexed observations: 6392
## Number of car companies: 8

Performance Metrics (Excluding Cherry)

## Performance data calculated for 9 car companies (excluding Cherry)

Absolute Performance Table (Excluding Cherry)

Absolute Performance: Stock Prices and Percentage Changes (Excluding Cherry)
Ticker Company Name Latest Price 1 Month Ago 3 Months Ago YTD Start 1M Change (%) 3M Change (%) YTD Change (%)
0489.HK Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited 8.80 9.15 9.13 3.73 -3.83 -3.61 135.92
1114.HK Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited 4.08 3.88 4.19 2.24 5.15 -2.63 82.18
9868.HK XPeng Inc.  79.05 83.35 95.05 46.85 -5.16 -16.83 68.73
9863.HK Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co., Ltd.  48.74 53.25 69.00 32.35 -8.47 -29.36 50.66
^HSI Hang Seng Index 25630.54 26033.26 27287.12 20059.95 -1.55 -6.07 27.77
0175.HK Geely Automobile Holdings Limited 17.94 17.06 19.74 14.56 5.16 -9.12 23.21
2333.HK Great Wall Motor Company Limited 15.28 14.80 17.00 13.11 3.24 -10.12 16.57
1211.HK BYD Company Limited 95.10 97.95 113.90 87.90 -2.91 -16.51 8.20
2015.HK Li Auto Inc.  64.65 70.30 102.00 94.40 -8.04 -36.62 -31.51

Relative Performance Table (Excluding Cherry)

Relative Performance: Stock Returns vs Hang Seng Index (Excluding Cherry)
Ticker Company Name 1M vs HSI (%) 3M vs HSI (%) YTD vs HSI (%)
0489.HK Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited -2.28 2.46 108.16
1114.HK Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited 6.70 3.45 54.41
9868.HK XPeng Inc.  -3.61 -10.76 40.96
9863.HK Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co., Ltd.  -6.92 -23.29 22.89
0175.HK Geely Automobile Holdings Limited 6.71 -3.05 -4.56
2333.HK Great Wall Motor Company Limited 4.79 -4.05 -11.20
1211.HK BYD Company Limited -1.36 -10.43 -19.57
2015.HK Li Auto Inc.  -6.49 -30.55 -59.28

Visualization: All Car Companies Excluding Cherry

Visualization: Faceted Charts (Excluding Cherry)

Comparison: With vs Without Cherry

Comparison: Analysis Including vs Excluding Cherry
Metric Including Cherry Excluding Cherry Difference
Number of Companies 9 8 -1 company
Common Start Date 2025-09-25 2022-09-29 1092 days earlier start
Analysis Period (days) 97 1189 +1092 days
End Date 2025-12-31 2025-12-31 Same

Key Benefits of Excluding Cherry: - Longer Historical Period: The analysis can start from an earlier date, providing more historical context - Better Comparison: All remaining companies have data from the same earlier start date - More Stable Analysis: Excludes the most recently listed company, which may have limited trading history

Summary

Key Findings

Data Coverage: - Successfully retrieved data for 9 out of 9 car companies - Analysis period: 10 years (from 2025-09-25 to 2025-12-31)

Risk Analysis: - VaR calculated at 95% confidence level (1-year historical VaR) - Highest VaR: 154.46% (9868.HK) - Lowest VaR: 36.81% (1211.HK) - Average VaR: 76.57%

Interpretation: - VaR represents the maximum expected loss at the specified confidence level - For example, a VaR of 30% means that in the worst 5% of 1-year periods, losses were 30% or worse - Higher VaR indicates higher risk (more volatile returns)

Methodology

  1. Data Retrieval: Historical adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance
  2. Returns Calculation: Log returns (log price differences)
  3. Indexing: Normalized to 100 at common start date for comparison
  4. VaR Calculation:
    • Rolling 252-trading-day (1-year) returns
    • 5th percentile of annual return distribution
    • Bootstrap confidence intervals (1000 iterations)

Analysis generated on 2026-01-01 using R version R version 4.5.1 (2025-06-13)