Hong Kong listed China Developer Stock Analysis

31 December 2025 - Written by ML with Cursor Ai support

Introduction

This report analyzes share prices for 16 Hong Kong property developers over the past 10 years. The analysis includes:

  • Historical price data retrieval
  • Return calculations
  • Indexed price series (normalized to common start date)
  • Visualizations (combined and faceted charts)
  • Value at Risk (VaR) calculations for each developer

Developer Ticker Reference

Ticker Symbols and Company Names
Ticker Company Name
3333.HK China Evergrande Group
2007.HK Country Garden Holdings Company Ltd. 
1918.HK Sunac China Holdings Limited
0813.HK Shimao Group Holdings Limited
1638.HK Kaisa Group Holdings Limited
3377.HK Sino-Ocean Group Holding Limited
1233.HK Times China Holdings Limited
3883.HK China Aoyuan Group Limited
1628.HK Yuzhou Group Holdings Company Ltd. 
2772.HK Zhongliang Holdings Group Company Ltd. 
2777.HK Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd. 
3383.HK Agile Group Holdings Limited
1813.HK KWG Group Holdings Limited
1777.HK Fantasia Holdings Group Co., Ltd. 
1098.HK Road King Infrastructure Limited
2202.HK China Vanke Company Limited

Data Fetching

## Fetching data for 16 developers...
## Date range: 2015-12-31 to 2025-12-31
## Fetching 3333.HK ...
##  OK
## Fetching 2007.HK ... OK
## Fetching 1918.HK ... OK
## Fetching 0813.HK ... OK
## Fetching 1638.HK ...
##  OK
## Fetching 3377.HK ... OK
## Fetching 1233.HK ... OK
## Fetching 3883.HK ... OK
## Fetching 1628.HK ... OK
## Fetching 2772.HK ... OK
## Fetching 2777.HK ... OK
## Fetching 3383.HK ... OK
## Fetching 1813.HK ... OK
## Fetching 1777.HK ... OK
## Fetching 1098.HK ... OK
## Fetching 2202.HK ... OK
## 
## Successfully fetched data for 16 out of 16 tickers.
## Total observations: 38434
## Date range: 2015-12-31 to 2025-12-30

Data Summary:

Data Summary by Developer
Ticker Company Name Start Date End Date Obs First Price Last Price
0813.HK Shimao Group Holdings Limited 2015-12-31 2025-12-30 2462 9.38 0.19
1098.HK Road King Infrastructure Limited 2015-12-31 2025-12-30 2462 4.15 0.66
1233.HK Times China Holdings Limited 2015-12-31 2025-12-30 2462 1.82 0.11
1628.HK Yuzhou Group Holdings Company Ltd.  2015-12-31 2025-12-30 2462 10.24 0.10
1638.HK Kaisa Group Holdings Limited 2015-12-31 2025-12-30 2461 1.34 0.10
1777.HK Fantasia Holdings Group Co., Ltd.  2015-12-31 2025-12-30 2462 0.69 0.08
1813.HK KWG Group Holdings Limited 2015-12-31 2025-12-30 2462 2.29 0.15
1918.HK Sunac China Holdings Limited 2015-12-31 2025-12-30 2462 4.56 1.29
2007.HK Country Garden Holdings Company Ltd.  2015-12-31 2025-12-30 2462 2.15 0.42
2202.HK China Vanke Company Limited 2015-12-31 2025-12-30 2462 15.08 3.31
2772.HK Zhongliang Holdings Group Company Ltd.  2019-07-16 2025-12-30 1592 4.95 0.06
2777.HK Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd.  2015-12-31 2025-12-30 2462 5.05 0.51
3333.HK China Evergrande Group 2015-12-31 2025-08-22 2375 5.23 0.16
3377.HK Sino-Ocean Group Holding Limited 2015-12-31 2025-12-30 2462 3.38 0.10
3383.HK Agile Group Holdings Limited 2015-12-31 2025-12-30 2462 2.50 0.27
3883.HK China Aoyuan Group Limited 2015-12-31 2025-12-30 2462 1.08 0.07

Calculate Returns

## Calculated returns for 16 developers.
## Total return observations: 38418

Returns Summary:

Daily Returns Summary Statistics (%)
Ticker Company Name Mean Std Dev Min Max
0813.HK Shimao Group Holdings Limited -0.158 5.206 -106.743 92.882
1098.HK Road King Infrastructure Limited -0.075 2.587 -18.871 34.294
1233.HK Times China Holdings Limited -0.115 4.584 -46.164 48.955
1628.HK Yuzhou Group Holdings Company Ltd.  -0.186 4.192 -45.564 56.347
1638.HK Kaisa Group Holdings Limited -0.106 4.522 -48.551 60.218
1777.HK Fantasia Holdings Group Co., Ltd.  -0.090 4.295 -79.851 78.220
1813.HK KWG Group Holdings Limited -0.110 4.508 -32.918 68.278
1918.HK Sunac China Holdings Limited -0.051 5.109 -80.875 56.288
2007.HK Country Garden Holdings Company Ltd.  -0.066 3.543 -20.927 37.525
2202.HK China Vanke Company Limited -0.062 3.116 -37.886 47.669
2772.HK Zhongliang Holdings Group Company Ltd.  -0.277 5.077 -38.668 110.735
2777.HK Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd.  -0.093 3.912 -37.852 63.758
3333.HK China Evergrande Group -0.146 4.822 -155.060 60.354
3377.HK Sino-Ocean Group Holding Limited -0.143 4.195 -45.582 70.941
3383.HK Agile Group Holdings Limited -0.090 4.306 -53.900 95.551
3883.HK China Aoyuan Group Limited -0.113 5.058 -128.944 81.930

Index to Common Start Date

## Common start date: 2019-07-16
## Indexed prices to common start date.
## Total indexed observations: 25385
## Number of developers: 16

Indexed Prices Preview:

Indexed Prices (First 5 observations per developer)
Ticker Date Price Index
0813.HK 2019-07-16 20.12 100.00
0813.HK 2019-07-17 19.45 96.69
0813.HK 2019-07-18 19.25 95.65
0813.HK 2019-07-19 19.29 95.86
0813.HK 2019-07-22 18.95 94.20
1098.HK 2019-07-16 13.74 100.00
1098.HK 2019-07-17 13.99 101.86
1098.HK 2019-07-18 13.85 100.81
1098.HK 2019-07-19 13.72 99.88
1098.HK 2019-07-22 13.64 99.30
1233.HK 2019-07-16 12.69 100.00
1233.HK 2019-07-17 12.78 100.67
1233.HK 2019-07-18 12.59 99.19
1233.HK 2019-07-19 12.78 100.67
1233.HK 2019-07-22 12.68 99.87
1628.HK 2019-07-16 24.85 100.00
1628.HK 2019-07-17 24.98 100.52
1628.HK 2019-07-18 25.05 100.78
1628.HK 2019-07-19 25.50 102.60
1628.HK 2019-07-22 24.59 98.96
1638.HK 2019-07-16 3.43 100.00
1638.HK 2019-07-17 3.43 100.00
1638.HK 2019-07-18 3.40 99.20
1638.HK 2019-07-19 3.36 98.12
1638.HK 2019-07-22 3.32 96.78
1777.HK 2019-07-16 1.17 100.00
1777.HK 2019-07-17 1.16 99.24
1777.HK 2019-07-18 1.16 98.47
1777.HK 2019-07-19 1.18 100.76
1777.HK 2019-07-22 1.25 106.87
1813.HK 2019-07-16 4.65 100.00
1813.HK 2019-07-17 4.66 100.25
1813.HK 2019-07-18 4.63 99.50
1813.HK 2019-07-19 4.61 98.99
1813.HK 2019-07-22 4.59 98.62
1918.HK 2019-07-16 33.61 100.00
1918.HK 2019-07-17 34.17 101.66
1918.HK 2019-07-18 33.18 98.72
1918.HK 2019-07-19 33.43 99.49
1918.HK 2019-07-22 32.83 97.70
2007.HK 2019-07-16 9.59 100.00
2007.HK 2019-07-17 9.59 100.00
2007.HK 2019-07-18 9.46 98.60
2007.HK 2019-07-19 9.54 99.47
2007.HK 2019-07-22 9.36 97.55
2202.HK 2019-07-16 23.96 100.00
2202.HK 2019-07-17 24.39 101.77
2202.HK 2019-07-18 24.27 101.28
2202.HK 2019-07-19 24.35 101.61
2202.HK 2019-07-22 24.11 100.63
2772.HK 2019-07-16 4.95 100.00
2772.HK 2019-07-17 5.36 108.24
2772.HK 2019-07-18 5.23 105.71
2772.HK 2019-07-19 5.10 103.03
2772.HK 2019-07-22 4.83 97.65
2777.HK 2019-07-16 11.19 100.00
2777.HK 2019-07-17 11.42 102.04
2777.HK 2019-07-18 11.30 100.95
2777.HK 2019-07-19 11.25 100.54
2777.HK 2019-07-22 11.17 99.86
3333.HK 2019-07-16 19.21 100.00
3333.HK 2019-07-17 20.44 106.44
3333.HK 2019-07-18 20.00 104.14
3333.HK 2019-07-19 19.52 101.61
3333.HK 2019-07-22 19.25 100.23
3377.HK 2019-07-16 2.77 100.00
3377.HK 2019-07-17 2.76 99.70
3377.HK 2019-07-18 2.75 99.11
3377.HK 2019-07-19 2.75 99.41
3377.HK 2019-07-22 2.70 97.63
3383.HK 2019-07-16 8.27 100.00
3383.HK 2019-07-17 8.40 101.49
3383.HK 2019-07-18 8.32 100.56
3383.HK 2019-07-19 8.37 101.12
3383.HK 2019-07-22 8.29 100.19
3883.HK 2019-07-16 9.51 100.00
3883.HK 2019-07-17 9.83 103.36
3883.HK 2019-07-18 9.76 102.65
3883.HK 2019-07-19 9.61 101.06
3883.HK 2019-07-22 9.20 96.81

Performance Analysis

Fetch Hang Seng Index Data

## Fetching Hang Seng Index data from 2024-12-01 to 2025-12-31 ...
## ✓ Successfully fetched Hang Seng Index data
## Date range: 2024-12-02 to 2025-12-30 
## Total observations: 265 
## ✓ YTD start date (2025-01-01) data available
##   Actual date used: 2024-12-31 
##   Price on that date: 20059.95

Calculate Performance Metrics

## Reference dates:
##   Latest (most recent trading day): 2025-12-30
##   1 month ago: 2025-11-30
##   3 months ago: 2025-10-01
##   YTD start: 2025-01-01
## Hang Seng Index prices (using nearest available trading day):
##   Latest: 25854.6 on 2025-12-30 (target: 2025-12-30 )
##   1M: 25858.89 on 2025-11-28 (target: 2025-11-30 )
##   3M: 26855.56 on 2025-09-30 (target: 2025-10-01 )
##   YTD: 20059.95 on 2024-12-31 (target: 2025-01-01 )
## Sample stock: 3333.HK 
##   Latest price: 0.163 on 2025-12-30 
##   1M price: 0.163 on or before 2025-11-30 
##   3M price: 0.163 on or before 2025-10-01 
##   YTD price: 0.163 on or before 2025-01-01 
##   Available date range: 2015-12-31 to 2025-08-22
## Performance data calculated for 17 stocks plus Hang Seng Index

Absolute Performance Table

Absolute Performance: Stock Prices and Percentage Changes
Ticker Company Name Latest Price 1 Month Ago 3 Months Ago YTD Start 1M Change (%) 3M Change (%) YTD Change (%)
^HSI Hang Seng Index 25854.60 25858.89 26855.56 20059.95 -0.02 -3.73 28.89
3333.HK China Evergrande Group 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00
2007.HK Country Garden Holdings Company Ltd.  0.42 0.52 0.60 0.49 -19.23 -30.00 -13.40
1777.HK Fantasia Holdings Group Co., Ltd.  0.08 0.08 0.10 0.11 -10.71 -27.88 -31.82
2202.HK China Vanke Company Limited 3.31 3.64 5.57 5.28 -9.07 -40.57 -37.31
1098.HK Road King Infrastructure Limited 0.66 0.68 0.74 1.14 -2.94 -10.81 -42.11
1918.HK Sunac China Holdings Limited 1.29 1.37 1.70 2.30 -5.84 -24.12 -43.91
2772.HK Zhongliang Holdings Group Company Ltd.  0.06 0.06 0.08 0.11 -7.69 -24.05 -45.45
1638.HK Kaisa Group Holdings Limited 0.10 0.12 0.17 0.20 -16.10 -40.72 -50.00
3377.HK Sino-Ocean Group Holding Limited 0.10 0.11 0.16 0.25 -8.33 -38.12 -60.08
1813.HK KWG Group Holdings Limited 0.15 0.23 0.28 0.40 -33.48 -47.02 -62.25
2777.HK Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd.  0.51 0.63 0.69 1.36 -19.05 -26.09 -62.50
3383.HK Agile Group Holdings Limited 0.27 0.40 0.43 0.75 -31.65 -36.47 -64.00
3883.HK China Aoyuan Group Limited 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.22 -27.66 -40.87 -68.81
1233.HK Times China Holdings Limited 0.11 0.13 0.19 0.44 -17.05 -44.56 -75.68
0813.HK Shimao Group Holdings Limited 0.19 0.23 0.38 1.04 -17.03 -49.33 -81.73
1628.HK Yuzhou Group Holdings Company Ltd.  0.10 0.13 0.25 0.64 -20.61 -59.22 -83.71

Relative Performance Table

Relative Performance: Stock Returns vs Hang Seng Index
Ticker Company Name 1M vs HSI (%) 3M vs HSI (%) YTD vs HSI (%)
3333.HK China Evergrande Group 0.02 3.73 -28.89
2007.HK Country Garden Holdings Company Ltd.  -19.21 -26.27 -42.29
1777.HK Fantasia Holdings Group Co., Ltd.  -10.70 -24.16 -60.70
2202.HK China Vanke Company Limited -9.05 -36.85 -66.20
1098.HK Road King Infrastructure Limited -2.92 -7.08 -70.99
1918.HK Sunac China Holdings Limited -5.82 -20.39 -72.80
2772.HK Zhongliang Holdings Group Company Ltd.  -7.68 -20.32 -74.34
1638.HK Kaisa Group Holdings Limited -16.09 -36.99 -78.89
3377.HK Sino-Ocean Group Holding Limited -8.32 -34.40 -88.97
1813.HK KWG Group Holdings Limited -33.46 -43.29 -91.14
2777.HK Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd.  -19.03 -22.36 -91.39
3383.HK Agile Group Holdings Limited -31.63 -32.74 -92.89
3883.HK China Aoyuan Group Limited -27.64 -37.14 -97.69
1233.HK Times China Holdings Limited -17.04 -40.83 -104.57
0813.HK Shimao Group Holdings Limited -17.01 -45.61 -110.62
1628.HK Yuzhou Group Holdings Company Ltd.  -20.59 -55.49 -112.60

Interpretation: - Absolute Performance: Shows the actual price changes for each stock and the Hang Seng Index - Relative Performance: Shows how each stock performed relative to the Hang Seng Index - Positive values indicate the stock outperformed the index - Negative values indicate the stock underperformed the index

Visualization: All Developers on One Chart

Visualization: Faceted Charts

Value at Risk (VaR) Calculation

Following the methodology from the VaR teaching guide, we calculate 1-year historical VaR at 95% confidence level for each developer.

VaR Calculation Function

Calculate VaR for All Developers

## Calculating VaR for all developers...
## Processing 3333.HK ... VaR = 231.48 %
## Processing 2007.HK ... VaR = 135.67 %
## Processing 1918.HK ... VaR = 154.48 %
## Processing 0813.HK ... VaR = 199.7 %
## Processing 1638.HK ... VaR = 151.1 %
## Processing 3377.HK ... VaR = 117.59 %
## Processing 1233.HK ... VaR = 170.67 %
## Processing 3883.HK ... VaR = 196.73 %
## Processing 1628.HK ... VaR = 162.75 %
## Processing 2772.HK ... VaR = 179.61 %
## Processing 2777.HK ... VaR = 128.34 %
## Processing 3383.HK ... VaR = 121.65 %
## Processing 1813.HK ... VaR = 161.18 %
## Processing 1777.HK ... VaR = 153.85 %
## Processing 1098.HK ... VaR = 100.86 %
## Processing 2202.HK ... VaR = 79.72 %
## 
## VaR calculation complete for 16 developers.

VaR Results Table

Value at Risk (VaR) Results - 95 % Confidence Level
Ticker Company Name VaR (%) CI Lower (%) CI Upper (%) Obs Start Date End Date
3333.HK China Evergrande Group 231.48 231.48 231.48 2123 2015-12-31 2025-08-22
0813.HK Shimao Group Holdings Limited 199.70 194.82 203.09 2210 2015-12-31 2025-12-30
3883.HK China Aoyuan Group Limited 196.73 193.75 201.07 2210 2015-12-31 2025-12-30
2772.HK Zhongliang Holdings Group Company Ltd.  179.61 173.07 189.09 1340 2019-07-16 2025-12-30
1233.HK Times China Holdings Limited 170.67 165.12 178.97 2210 2015-12-31 2025-12-30
1628.HK Yuzhou Group Holdings Company Ltd.  162.75 158.56 167.64 2210 2015-12-31 2025-12-30
1813.HK KWG Group Holdings Limited 161.18 156.18 166.89 2210 2015-12-31 2025-12-30
1918.HK Sunac China Holdings Limited 154.48 147.14 158.36 2210 2015-12-31 2025-12-30
1777.HK Fantasia Holdings Group Co., Ltd.  153.85 152.61 155.83 2210 2015-12-31 2025-12-30
1638.HK Kaisa Group Holdings Limited 151.10 149.10 156.29 2209 2015-12-31 2025-12-30
2007.HK Country Garden Holdings Company Ltd.  135.67 130.05 140.44 2210 2015-12-31 2025-12-30
2777.HK Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd.  128.34 119.71 137.28 2210 2015-12-31 2025-12-30
3383.HK Agile Group Holdings Limited 121.65 119.54 123.52 2210 2015-12-31 2025-12-30
3377.HK Sino-Ocean Group Holding Limited 117.59 114.68 120.06 2210 2015-12-31 2025-12-30
1098.HK Road King Infrastructure Limited 100.86 97.94 102.45 2210 2015-12-31 2025-12-30
2202.HK China Vanke Company Limited 79.72 76.86 82.20 2210 2015-12-31 2025-12-30

VaR Visualization

Detailed VaR Analysis Charts

For each developer, we provide comprehensive four-panel charts showing price, rolling annual returns, daily returns, and return distribution.

Summary

Key Findings

Data Coverage: - Successfully retrieved data for 16 out of 16 developers - Analysis period: 10 years (from 2019-07-16 to 2025-12-30)

Risk Analysis: - VaR calculated at 95% confidence level (1-year historical VaR) - Highest VaR: 231.48% (3333.HK) - Lowest VaR: 79.72% (2202.HK) - Average VaR: 152.84%

Interpretation: - VaR represents the maximum expected loss at the specified confidence level - For example, a VaR of 30% means that in the worst 5% of 1-year periods, losses were 30% or worse - Higher VaR indicates higher risk (more volatile returns)

Methodology

  1. Data Retrieval: Historical adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance
  2. Returns Calculation: Log returns (log price differences)
  3. Indexing: Normalized to 100 at common start date for comparison
  4. VaR Calculation:
    • Rolling 252-trading-day (1-year) returns
    • 5th percentile of annual return distribution
    • Bootstrap confidence intervals (1000 iterations)

Analysis generated on 2025-12-31 using R version R version 4.5.1 (2025-06-13)