Selected Hong Kong property companies Stock Analysis

01 January 2026 - Written by ML with Cursor Ai support

Introduction

This report analyzes share prices for 9 property companies with exposure to Hong Kong property marketover the past 10 years. The analysis includes:

  • Historical price data retrieval
  • Return calculations
  • Indexed price series (normalized to common start date)
  • Visualizations (combined and faceted charts)
  • Value at Risk (VaR) calculations for each property company
  • Performance comparison with the Hang Seng Index

Property Company Ticker Reference

Ticker Symbols and Company Names
Ticker Company Name
0016.HK Sun Hung Kai Properties
0012.HK Henderson Land
0017.HK New World Development
0083.HK Sino Land
0014.HK Hysan Development
H78.SI Hongkong Land
0019.HK Swire
0004.HK Wharf
0683.HK Kerry Properties

Data Fetching

## Fetching data for 9 property companies...
## Date range: 2016-01-01 to 2026-01-01
## Fetching 0016.HK ... OK
## Fetching 0012.HK ... OK
## Fetching 0017.HK ... OK
## Fetching 0083.HK ... OK
## Fetching 0014.HK ... OK
## Fetching H78.SI ...
##  OK
## Fetching 0019.HK ... OK
## Fetching 0004.HK ... OK
## Fetching 0683.HK ... OK
## 
## Successfully fetched data for 9 out of 9 tickers.
## Total observations: 22210
## Date range: 2016-01-04 to 2025-12-31

Data Summary:

Data Summary by Property Company
Ticker Company Name Start Date End Date Obs First Price Last Price
0004.HK Wharf 2016-01-04 2025-12-31 2462 8.66 21.82
0012.HK Henderson Land 2016-01-04 2025-12-31 2462 19.00 28.14
0014.HK Hysan Development 2016-01-04 2025-12-31 2462 18.60 18.83
0016.HK Sun Hung Kai Properties 2016-01-04 2025-12-31 2462 59.55 94.35
0017.HK New World Development 2016-01-04 2025-12-31 2462 17.38 7.19
0019.HK Swire 2016-01-04 2025-12-31 2462 48.16 62.70
0083.HK Sino Land 2016-01-04 2025-12-31 2462 6.18 10.21
0683.HK Kerry Properties 2016-01-04 2025-12-31 2462 10.23 20.20
H78.SI Hongkong Land 2016-01-04 2025-12-31 2514 4.60 6.95

Calculate Returns

## Calculated returns for 9 property companies.
## Total return observations: 22201

Returns Summary:

Daily Returns Summary Statistics (%)
Ticker Company Name Mean Std Dev Min Max
0004.HK Wharf 0.038 2.062 -18.090 15.663
0012.HK Henderson Land 0.016 1.562 -14.149 9.237
0014.HK Hysan Development 0.001 1.563 -10.373 7.874
0016.HK Sun Hung Kai Properties 0.019 1.436 -10.916 9.371
0017.HK New World Development -0.036 2.153 -14.607 19.566
0019.HK Swire 0.011 1.651 -9.949 15.849
0083.HK Sino Land 0.020 1.517 -10.870 7.490
0683.HK Kerry Properties 0.028 1.789 -14.058 12.143
H78.SI Hongkong Land 0.016 1.532 -8.400 11.884

Index to Common Start Date

## Common start date: 2016-01-04
## Indexed prices to common start date.
## Total indexed observations: 22210
## Number of property companies: 9

Indexed Prices Preview:

Indexed Prices (First 5 observations per property company)
Ticker Date Price Index
0004.HK 2016-01-04 8.66 100.00
0004.HK 2016-01-05 8.68 100.24
0004.HK 2016-01-06 8.64 99.76
0004.HK 2016-01-07 8.55 98.70
0004.HK 2016-01-08 8.37 96.70
0012.HK 2016-01-04 19.00 100.00
0012.HK 2016-01-05 18.72 98.52
0012.HK 2016-01-06 18.62 97.99
0012.HK 2016-01-07 18.44 97.04
0012.HK 2016-01-08 18.28 96.20
0014.HK 2016-01-04 18.60 100.00
0014.HK 2016-01-05 18.51 99.53
0014.HK 2016-01-06 18.54 99.69
0014.HK 2016-01-07 18.22 97.97
0014.HK 2016-01-08 18.28 98.28
0016.HK 2016-01-04 59.55 100.00
0016.HK 2016-01-05 59.45 99.84
0016.HK 2016-01-06 58.85 98.82
0016.HK 2016-01-07 58.56 98.34
0016.HK 2016-01-08 58.49 98.23
0017.HK 2016-01-04 17.38 100.00
0017.HK 2016-01-05 17.38 100.00
0017.HK 2016-01-06 16.61 95.56
0017.HK 2016-01-07 16.13 92.82
0017.HK 2016-01-08 16.29 93.73
0019.HK 2016-01-04 48.16 100.00
0019.HK 2016-01-05 48.02 99.71
0019.HK 2016-01-06 47.59 98.82
0019.HK 2016-01-07 46.51 96.58
0019.HK 2016-01-08 46.37 96.29
0083.HK 2016-01-04 6.18 100.00
0083.HK 2016-01-05 6.21 100.54
0083.HK 2016-01-06 6.19 100.18
0083.HK 2016-01-07 6.08 98.39
0083.HK 2016-01-08 5.90 95.52
0683.HK 2016-01-04 10.23 100.00
0683.HK 2016-01-05 10.18 99.52
0683.HK 2016-01-06 10.13 99.04
0683.HK 2016-01-07 9.91 96.89
0683.HK 2016-01-08 9.71 94.93
H78.SI 2016-01-04 4.60 100.00
H78.SI 2016-01-05 4.53 98.45
H78.SI 2016-01-06 4.45 96.90
H78.SI 2016-01-07 4.36 94.93
H78.SI 2016-01-08 4.27 92.82

Performance Analysis

Fetch Hang Seng Index Data

## Fetching Hang Seng Index data from 2024-12-01 to 2026-01-01 ...
## ✓ Successfully fetched Hang Seng Index data
## Date range: 2024-12-02 to 2025-12-31 
## Total observations: 266 
## ✓ YTD start date (2025-01-01) data available
##   Actual date used: 2024-12-31 
##   Price on that date: 20059.95

Calculate Performance Metrics

## Reference dates:
##   Latest (most recent trading day): 2025-12-31
##   1 month ago: 2025-12-01
##   3 months ago: 2025-10-02
##   YTD start: 2025-01-01
## Hang Seng Index prices (using nearest available trading day):
##   Latest: 25630.54 on 2025-12-31 (target: 2025-12-31 )
##   1M: 26033.26 on 2025-12-01 (target: 2025-12-01 )
##   3M: 27287.12 on 2025-10-02 (target: 2025-10-02 )
##   YTD: 20059.95 on 2024-12-31 (target: 2025-01-01 )
## Sample stock: 0016.HK 
##   Latest price: 94.35 on 2025-12-31 
##   1M price: 100.5 on or before 2025-12-01 
##   3M price: 91.21028 on or before 2025-10-02 
##   YTD price: 71.95168 on or before 2025-01-01 
##   Available date range: 2016-01-04 to 2025-12-31
## Performance data calculated for 10 stocks plus Hang Seng Index

Absolute Performance Table

Absolute Performance: Stock Prices and Percentage Changes
Ticker Company Name Latest Price 1 Month Ago 3 Months Ago YTD Start 1M Change (%) 3M Change (%) YTD Change (%)
0014.HK Hysan Development 18.83 17.78 15.97 11.00 5.91 17.91 71.23
H78.SI Hongkong Land 6.95 6.57 6.54 4.24 5.78 6.27 64.01
0017.HK New World Development 7.19 6.83 8.07 5.14 5.27 -10.90 39.88
0683.HK Kerry Properties 20.20 20.68 21.12 14.52 -2.32 -4.36 39.16
0083.HK Sino Land 10.21 10.56 9.54 7.39 -3.31 7.02 38.24
0016.HK Sun Hung Kai Properties 94.35 100.50 91.21 71.95 -6.12 3.44 31.13
0012.HK Henderson Land 28.14 29.68 27.50 21.99 -5.19 2.33 27.99
^HSI Hang Seng Index 25630.54 26033.26 27287.12 20059.95 -1.55 -6.07 27.77
0004.HK Wharf 21.82 23.90 22.04 21.23 -8.70 -1.00 2.77
0019.HK Swire 62.70 67.30 65.00 67.10 -6.84 -3.54 -6.56

Relative Performance Table

Relative Performance: Stock Returns vs Hang Seng Index
Ticker Company Name 1M vs HSI (%) 3M vs HSI (%) YTD vs HSI (%)
0014.HK Hysan Development 7.45 23.98 43.46
H78.SI Hongkong Land 7.33 12.34 36.24
0017.HK New World Development 6.82 -4.83 12.11
0683.HK Kerry Properties -0.77 1.71 11.39
0083.HK Sino Land -1.77 13.09 10.47
0016.HK Sun Hung Kai Properties -4.57 9.51 3.36
0012.HK Henderson Land -3.64 8.40 0.22
0004.HK Wharf -7.16 5.07 -25.00
0019.HK Swire -5.29 2.53 -34.33

Interpretation: - Absolute Performance: Shows the actual price changes for each stock and the Hang Seng Index - Relative Performance: Shows how each stock performed relative to the Hang Seng Index - Positive values indicate the stock outperformed the index - Negative values indicate the stock underperformed the index

Visualization: All Property Companies on One Chart

Visualization: Faceted Charts

Value at Risk (VaR) Calculation

Following the methodology from the VaR teaching guide, we calculate 1-year historical VaR at 95% confidence level for each property company.

VaR Calculation Function

Calculate VaR for All Property Companies

## Calculating VaR for all property companies...
## Processing 0016.HK ... VaR = 27.89 %
## Processing 0012.HK ... VaR = 28.15 %
## Processing 0017.HK ... VaR = 75.51 %
## Processing 0083.HK ... VaR = 23.02 %
## Processing 0014.HK ... VaR = 50.87 %
## Processing H78.SI ... VaR = 38.4 %
## Processing 0019.HK ... VaR = 62.3 %
## Processing 0004.HK ... VaR = 42.15 %
## Processing 0683.HK ... VaR = 36.9 %
## 
## VaR calculation complete for 9 property companies.

VaR Results Table

Value at Risk (VaR) Results - 95 % Confidence Level
Ticker Company Name VaR (%) CI Lower (%) CI Upper (%) Obs Start Date End Date
0017.HK New World Development 75.51 73.82 77.75 2210 2016-01-04 2025-12-31
0019.HK Swire 62.30 60.10 63.97 2210 2016-01-04 2025-12-31
0014.HK Hysan Development 50.87 49.45 52.26 2210 2016-01-04 2025-12-31
0004.HK Wharf 42.15 39.28 44.14 2210 2016-01-04 2025-12-31
H78.SI Hongkong Land 38.40 36.13 42.36 2262 2016-01-04 2025-12-31
0683.HK Kerry Properties 36.90 34.41 38.35 2210 2016-01-04 2025-12-31
0012.HK Henderson Land 28.15 26.40 30.15 2210 2016-01-04 2025-12-31
0016.HK Sun Hung Kai Properties 27.89 26.96 29.37 2210 2016-01-04 2025-12-31
0083.HK Sino Land 23.02 21.72 24.19 2210 2016-01-04 2025-12-31

VaR Visualization

Detailed VaR Analysis Charts

For each property company, we provide comprehensive four-panel charts showing price, rolling annual returns, daily returns, and return distribution.

Summary

Key Findings

Data Coverage: - Successfully retrieved data for 9 out of 9 property companies - Analysis period: 10 years (from 2016-01-04 to 2025-12-31)

Risk Analysis: - VaR calculated at 95% confidence level (1-year historical VaR) - Highest VaR: 75.51% (0017.HK) - Lowest VaR: 23.02% (0083.HK) - Average VaR: 42.8%

Interpretation: - VaR represents the maximum expected loss at the specified confidence level - For example, a VaR of 30% means that in the worst 5% of 1-year periods, losses were 30% or worse - Higher VaR indicates higher risk (more volatile returns)

Methodology

  1. Data Retrieval: Historical adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance
  2. Returns Calculation: Log returns (log price differences)
  3. Indexing: Normalized to 100 at common start date for comparison
  4. VaR Calculation:
    • Rolling 252-trading-day (1-year) returns
    • 5th percentile of annual return distribution
    • Bootstrap confidence intervals (1000 iterations)

Analysis generated on 2026-01-01 using R version R version 4.5.1 (2025-06-13)